Politics & Government

Census Data: South, Central Jersey Show Most Growth

Garden State residents jump 377, 544; Hispanic population is the largest minority group.

Snooki, the Situation and the rest of their housemates may or may not be the draw, but just-released data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that the Garden State is growing Down the Shore. And that move could trigger a power shift among longtime political leaders as redistricting begins.

According to the 2010 counts, Ocean County, where population grew by 65,651, is the state's fastest-growing county. Among other findings in the report, which was released Thursday afternoon, the state's Hispanic population claimed the top spot among minority residents. Also, a recent influx in residents allowed Newark to retain its standing at the New Jersey's largest city, while Jersey City officials who expected to surpass "Brick City" in population, are looking for a possible recount.

According to the report, Middlesex (59,966), Gloucester (33,615), Somerset (25,954) and Burlington (25,340) counties followed Ocean in growth. In north Jersey, development-heavy Hudson County grew by 25,291 people, the highest population growth among the state's northern counties over the past decade. Conversely, residents of neighboring Essex County dropped by 9,664 over the same period past.

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Ocean County's growth appears to have hinged on development in Lakewood, a center of new residential development, including active-adult communities for residents 55 years old and older. Lakewood grew by 32,491—or just more than 50 percent—to 92,843 over the past decade, jumping from 22nd to 7th  in the state. None of the other communities in the state's top 20 posted gains of more than 10,000 residents. In fact, several urban communities reported population losses since the last census.

None of the cities are as disappointed in the numbers as Jersey City, where leaders have spent the decade promoting their belief that the city would surpass Newark as the state's largest in the 2010 census, a notion Newark developers disputed; the data shows Newark is still largest. Jersey City grew by 7,542 residents, to 247,597 in 2010, while Newark, which added  3,594 residents, counts 277,140 residents.

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Jersey City leaders were hanging their city's hopes on high-rise residential construction that has dominated the city's waterfront. The construction boom took a hit after the nation's housing bubble burst in 2008. Even Donald Trump scaled back his Jersey City luxury condo complex from two towers to one. The much anticipated Rem Koolhaas mixed-use tower in Jersey City's Powerhouse Arts District, unveiled during a 2007 press conference, has yet to be built.

Perhaps because of Hoboken's dense population and Jersey City's development, Newark's population rise has been fueled by new downtown development and increased marketing, which has drawn  young professionals and students renting properties or buying houses within walking distance to Penn Station that are a fraction of the cost for similar properties in Manhattan and the properties along the Hudson River waterfront.

Jersey City Councilman Steve Fulop said he and other city officials had been hoping to grab the state's top spot due to the housing development and the undercount of city residents during the 2000 census. He said he plans to investigate the possibility of an undercount in the new census.

"It's disappointing because I thought with the growth that Jersey City had we'd overtake them," Fulop said.

Outside of population growth in Newark and Jersey City, many of the state's urban areas endured population drops in the last decade. Paterson fell 3,023, to 146,199; Camden dropped 2,560, to 77,344 and East Orange dropped 5,554, to 64,270.

Union City held most of its population, losing only 633 residents, to 66,455. Union City has been touted by developers as the next Hoboken, as new luxury condo complexes have risen in the city, at prices lower than in the Mile Square City. A center for the state's Cuban community, Union City's new housing has largely been smaller in scale than Hoboken or neighboring communities in northern Hudson County though. The Port Imperial complex, which spans multiple waterfront communities in Hudson and Bergen Counties does not span Union City.

In bucolic Somerset and Morris counties, new residential developments, including more 55-and-over communities for aging Baby Boomers, have triggered growth in what were once rural areas of the counties. Morristown, one of the state's new so-called "transit villages," has also seen a spike in downtown apartment and condominium complexes in the last decade.

The state's Hispanic population has grown 17 percent in the last decade, from 1,117,191 in 2000 to 1,555,144 today. The Hispanic bloc topped the African-American population, which, despite a jump from 1,141,821 in 2000 to 1,204,626, fell to third demographic audience in the state. The Asian-American population rose 47 percent in New Jersey, going from 480,276 residents in 2000 to 725,726 in 2010.

The data sets will likely have an impact on the state's redistricting of congressional and state legislative districts. Census Bureau officials have already said New Jersey will lose one of the state's 13 seats in the House of Representatives and a state commission is presently reworking the state's 40 districts for state legislative seats, which will go into effect by April.

While data shows that southern New Jersey has seen population growth to warrant the addition of seats in that region, a move that could benefit Republicans, given the population growth in Ocean County, a Republican bastion, national voting rights laws will help dictate the redistricting.

Voting rights laws will likely protect the seats of U.S. Reps. Donald Payne in Essex County and Albio Sires in Hudson County, which have been designed as African-American and Hispanic majority seats, respectively. Population figures show the Hispanic population remaining the highest in Sires' Hudson County powerbase and the African-American population remaining the highest in Payne's base in Essex.

While New Jersey will lose a seat, population totals show that Republican U.S. Rep. Chris Smith's 4th district is closest to the ideal size of 732,658 for a congressional district. The district, which includes Lakewood, is 8,062 under the total. The highest deviation belongs to Payne, who is 98,315 below the ideal size.

In North Jersey, Bergen County's 905,115 residents lead the state and likely will provide the county with more political clout as lines are redrawn. The county remains politically competitive, with Republicans seeing a rise in political power with the 2010 election of County Executive Kathe Donovan after an eight-year Democratic Party dominance. Bergen County is currently split among several state legislative districts and the congressional districts of Republican Scott Garrett and Democrat Steve Rothman.

The population figures show that Garrett's base in northwestern New Jersey, specifically Sussex and Warren Counties, showing a population growth of roughly 11,000 people, fueled primarily by a flood of new housing development in the last decade. But growth has been higher in Bergen and Passaic Counties, portions of which are in Garrett's district, leading to the potential of mapmakers merging the Republican rich areas with another district.

In the state legislative districts, 14 of 40 are more than 5 percent away from the 219,797 ideal district size. State law allows districts to be within 5 percent of the ideal size. The districts outside of the deviation are scattered throughout the state, with the highest deviation being in the Ocean County-based 30th district, which has 50,503 more than the ideal size. The district is anchored in Lakewood.

The Gloucester County based 4th district and Union County anchored 21st district are both within zero-percent deviation. The Democratic leaning 4th district is seven people above the ideal size and the Republican leaning 21st is 78 people above the ideal district size.

The Essex County based 27th district, headed by state Sen. Dick Codey (D) is 15,301 people, or 7 percent below the ideal size. The district is considered one on the Repubicans' list to move into more GOP-friendly territory, possibly moving Codey, a West Orange resident and former governor, into Republican-rich Morris County.


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